It looks like T-Mobile and Sprint are actually merging.
Well, probably.
While the two companies just defeated a multi-state lawsuit opposing their merger, they still have a district court in DC and a California state commission to get through.
That said, I think it's a safe bet to assume the merger will happen.
So what does that mean for folks buying the new Samsung Galaxy S20—and for folks with older Sprint and T-Mobile devices? By and large, it's good news.
The new Galaxy S20 models will work on both networks.
Any negative effects of the merger, which would result primarily in higher monthly fees, will appear down the road.
T-Mobile has pledged not to raise rates for three years, which means, of course, that rates could rise three years from now.
Moving Fast to Merge Networks
All of the phones Sprint and T-Mobile have sold over the past year are compatible with each others' 4G networks.
The new Galaxy S20 line works on both carriers' 5G networks, as do the 5G phones T-Mobile has sold so far.
So owners of these phones will see immediate network improvements as soon as T-Mobile gets its act together there.
That's going to come in a few phases.
First, the merger actually has to close! T-Mobile's COO Mike Sievert .
For obvious reasons, nothing changes before then.
Then, T-Mobile can turn on free roaming between the T-Mobile and Sprint networks.
That's a little clumsy; it doesn't distribute traffic efficiently, but it will let Sprint and T-Mobile customers use each other's networks where their primary network doesn't have coverage.
In a city like New York, with 5G, that may get sloppy, as each carrier's phones will still prefer that carrier's 5G network.
T-Mobile will then work to install its own equipment on Sprint's 2.5GHz towers, creating one unified 5G network.
T-Mobile's director of radio networks, Karri Kuoppamaki, warned me that process will take until 2024 to complete.
But his boss, CTO Neville Ray, said they'll start rolling out mid-band LTE almost immediately.
"The construction work can be done within a matter of low single-digit weeks … we have a lot of sites with leases and with permits ready to roll.
So this is rollout of radio on existing sites.
So we're ready as soon as this deal is closed.
We can move now very, very quickly with 2.5 deployment," Ray said at a UBS conference in December.
Throughout the year, T-Mobile and Sprint customers would just see their coverage get better and better.
Otherwise, everyone will still be paying their bill to their current carrier, on their current service plan.
Merging billing systems is harder than building networks.
Moving Plans, Probably Next Year
Switching subscribers' brands, SIM cards, and service plans will probably happen sometime in 2021.
This is going to be a shock for people on older Sprint service plans, as many of those plans were sold at extremely low promotional rates; T-Mobile may demand that those folks switch to current, T-Mobile service plans.
This would be a major effective rate hike for many of those customers, but T-Mobile would be keeping its promise not to raise rates—after all, it isn't raising rates based on current plan prices.
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T-Mobile will probably change all of its service plans at this point, too.
With integrated networks, the company says it will have 14 times the capacity it currently has.
By 2021, it will have access to base stations that can use Sprint's spectrum much better than the existing hardware currently can, as well.
So look for new plans that are cheaper, or more unlimited, or for that matter based on completely different principles, like charging by application rather than by data bucket.
(Remember, there is no net neutrality in wireless.) We have no idea.
What About Dish?
Meanwhile, Dish will spin up its wireless service, which will be based on a 7-year contract to use the merged Sprint/T-Mobile networks.
Dish will probably offer low-cost service on those networks, including 5G, using the Boost brand as well as its own.
So no matter what happens with the mainline brands, there will likely still be lower-cost options on the merged network from Metro by T-Mobile, the Dish-owned Boost, and other virtual carrier brands.
Sprint and T-Mobile users shouldn't consider switching carriers or delaying phone purchases right now.
Buying a Galaxy S20 will keep you relatively future-proof, and whatever's going to happen to the service plans is going to happen to everyone.
Buy with confidence.
