AT&T and Verizon both expanded their 5G reach in January—AT&T much more than Verizon—but none of the carriers made truly major moves in the past few weeks.
That's all about to change with the arrival of the Samsung Galaxy S20 lineup on February 11, and the Mobile World Congress trade show starting February 24.
The two events will provide a one-two punch delivering what I expect to be the first truly popular 5G phones to US carrier shelves, kick-starting a big year for 5G in the US.
Up until now, the major, mainstream flagship phones in the US haven't been 5G.
Most of the high-end phones sold here are either Samsung Galaxy S, Samsung Galaxy Note, or Apple iPhone models, and up until now, only super-expensive variants of the S and Note have carried 5G.
Samsung could duplicate last year's strategy and only offer 5G on its highest-end Galaxy S20 models.
But if it goes ahead and activates 5G up and down its line, millions more Americans will start to use 5G networks—not because they're actively seeking out 5G, but because it comes as a bonus with the phone they intended to buy anyway.
Two Carriers Make Moves to Expand
AT&T added to its low-band 5G network in January, including Boston, Dayton, and St.
Louis, as well as expanding its low-band 5G coverage in its existing metros.
AT&T has two different forms of 5G running right now.
Its low-band 5G now covers 50 million people, according to the carrier, but speeds are very similar to 4G; according to Ookla Speedtest Intelligence, 5G download speeds on AT&T's low-band Galaxy Note 10+ 5G average around 70Mbps.
(Note: Ookla Speedtest is owned by Ziff Davis, Daxdi.com's parent company.)
AT&T's high-band "5G+" is available in small parts of 35 cities; AT&T won't release maps, so we're not sure exactly where.
It's much faster, averaging 760Mbps down according to Ookla, but so far it's only been available to business customers.
The new Galaxy S20 line will hopefully bring AT&T's two networks together for the first time.
Verizon added small areas of Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Little Rock to its all-high-band network, so it now covers parts of 34 cities with its super-fast system.
As Verizon basically needs to build this short-range network block by block, it's slow going.
But a recent move by the city of New York to allow more 5G equipment on street lamps could speed up installation in the nation's largest city, at least.
Sprint and T-Mobile Stall
Sprint's and T-Mobile's 5G rollouts seem to be largely stalled by the knotty mess that has become of their merger.
Network equipment provider Ericsson told Light Reading that the carriers' stall has slowed down their purchases of network equipment.
Currently US District Court judge Victor Guerrero is preparing his verdict on states' complaints against the merger…but wait, even then the situation might not be over, as another judge in DC hasn't yet ruled on whether the federal government's remedies to fix competition are sufficient and even after that, the California Public Utilities Commission needs to rule on the merger.
Sprint and T-Mobile both made some moves in Miami, with Sprint saying it has done a partial rollout and T-Mobile saying its fast millimeter-wave system now covers small parts of Miami.
T-Mobile currently blankets the nation with a very slow low-band 5G network—averaging 63Mbps down, according to Speedtest Intelligence—while Sprint has a mid-band network in 10 cities.
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More Phones and Spectrum Coming
Samsung isn't the only phone maker we expect to make big 5G moves this month.
We also expect to see LG's next 5G device for the US, the V60, around the Mobile World Congress time frame.
The 5G business in China appears to be booming, virus or no: ZTE said it expects to release 10 5G-based phones this year, and we expect to hear 5G phone news from Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo at MWC as well.
US regulators continue to dicker with the private satellite industry over the C-Band, a huge swathe of desirable mid-band spectrum that can split the difference between speed and coverage in a way that neither our existing high-band or low-band networks do.
FCC chair Ajit Pai just proposed a plan to auction off 280MHz of the C-Band this December.
It's less than I would have liked, but it would let at least two carriers in each metro area build fast mid-band networks in 2021.
As always, keep an eye on our Race to 5G page for the latest updates, including all of the news from Samsung Unpacked on February 11 and Mobile World Congress starting February 24.
